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Earthquake Risk


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#1 benhalterci

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 05:05 PM

My mother has just read a 'jolly' article in the UK Times about Istanbul and entitled 'After New Orleans, would you live here?' where it says that Istanbul lies on a giant fault line and it is only a matter of time before it opens like a zip with the ensuing consequences of any major earthquake. She begs me not to go there, still less think of buying property there. Do you agree with the author of the article who apparently is an expert in these matters?

#2 KangalKid

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 05:26 PM

wow i didnt know that Istanbul was on a fault line !! makes me shudder, ive known earthquakes north of Istanbul (a fair few miles north ) but im not aware of any around Istanbul itself but of course im no Turkish conesseur (sp) .i look forward with interest to read what more knowledgeable people on here have to say
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#3 Lawyer

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 05:34 PM

Dear Ben,We do advice you to get earthquake insurance when you buy property.RegardslawyerElifsu Senwww.turkishlegalcentre.cominfo@turkishlegalcentre.com
D.Elifsu Sen
SOLICITOR/AVUKAT
www.turkishlegalcentre.com
Email: info@turkishlegalcentre.com

#4 JK1

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 06:12 PM

I read that information a while ago and I think there was a television programme about it. They said a large earthquake was due in the next hundred years. Now that could be tomorrow or it could be after I have died. It's probably wise to know what to do if there is an earthquake and in Turkey it is compulsory to insure your property in case of earthquake with DASK insurance. Other than that it wouldn't stop me going there. There are many areas in the world where you take a chance even the area I live in in UK was severely flooded last year and a few people died. I could have been in an area affected by the tsunami, I could get caught in an avalanche when skiing, I could be run over by a bus somewhere, I have been in a big hurricane once - the list is endless. So I'm not going to let the possibility of an earthquake sometime in the next 100 years stop me from going anywhere.

#5 benhalterci

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 06:45 PM

thanks everyone:) Yes, I am instructing a good lawyer once I find a property to purchase and of course will get earthquake insurance - especially as it is compulsory?Should the property also possess some kind of earthquake certificate (standard of construction) and do I need to pay a surveyor to look at it, even if it is a modern building?

#6 Ken

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 07:09 PM

it says that Istanbul lies on a giant fault line and it is only a matter of time before it opens like a zip with the ensuing consequences of any major earthquake.

I would check the sources of that article, if they gave any, on the validity of that statement, it sounds like alarmism to me to say it like that. But there was a huge earthquake there in 2002 I believe, and it was pretty horrible. The Government of Turkey has a website specifically about Earthquakes, they even have a report of recent seismic activity. You'll find it under the "Government" category of the directory on our main page. It would be best to get info from a reliable source like that concerning earthquakes, since anybody can write an article saying whatever they want. The Government info would probably be more reliable.Lots of people are hurt or killed not because of buildings collapsing, but by glass or furniture falling on them. Some older buildings collapse because of shoddy construction, like reinforcement bar which is smooth, rather than knurled, to grip the concrete. As I understand it, several builders went to prison after that earthquake. I've heard that if you buy a place in a building constructed after the big earthquake, it's a lot less likely to have shoddy construction, since nobody else wants to go to jail! Also there are many reputable construction companies who build them correctly.Check out the earthquake site, and do some research into it, rather than going by the article... that's my suggestion.

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#7 benhalterci

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 07:38 PM

thanks:) A lot of the buildings in Istanbul are older and more likely to have been built before the quake. However, I would be better advised, my lawyer tells me, by anyway going for a more modern building instead of the quaint 100 year old ones near the centre - which are anyway too expensive for me.I told mum it is alarmism, but she is elderly and worried about me going away again and especially to Turkey.I do thank you and the others for your sensible and well-informed input.btw..is the government site also in English and what is the url?

#8 JK1

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 09:01 PM

http://www.guardian....aturaldisasters Here is one of the articles that I remember reading. It's the North Anatolian fault that lies near Istanbul.I wouldn't show it to your mother though. It still wouldn't stop me going http://www.scienceda...60108223950.htmThere are loads of reports like this if you google it.there.http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=112861 here is a more recent one

#9 sunny

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Posted 04 September 2008 - 11:06 PM

The big earthquake that you are refering to Ben was on 17th August 1999 centred on Izmit. If I remember correctly about thirty thousand people were killed.Personally, having been on the third floor of a building when a small (3.4) earthquake struck Izmir a few years ago it's not an experience I'd like to repeat so I will keep well away from Istanbul.There was an interesting programme made by the BBC which gives information on the likelihood of a big earthquake in Istanbul.http://www.bbc.co.uk...akestorms.shtmlEvery day there are earthquakes in Turkey. If you want to check them out here is the link:-Latest seismic activity
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#10 Ken

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Posted 05 September 2008 - 03:05 AM

Here's the Turkey Government website about Earthquakes in Turkey:Earthquakes in TurkeyBy the way, if I always did what my mother thought I should do, I'd never have gone even one kilometer from my house. I didn't listen to her, and I'm seeing the world. Mothers are wonderful. I really appreciate them. Every year, on my birthday, I send her a card thanking her for helping me give birth to myself. :) Maybe that's why they call me the black sheep of the family. I wear it as a badge of honor.C'mon out here with us.

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#11 sunny

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Posted 05 September 2008 - 09:15 AM

I'm not trying to score points Ben but the earthquake site/link I gave is much clearer than the government one. It's Bogazici University Earthquake Research Institute - probably where the government gets their info.
ALWAYS FORGIVE YOUR ENEMIES; NOTHING ANNOYS THEM MORE! ~~~Oscar Wilde~~~

ALL OF US COULD TAKE A LESSON FROM THE WEATHER. IT PAYS NO ATTENTION TO CRITICISM.

#12 benhalterci

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Posted 05 September 2008 - 06:09 PM

;) The trouble is my mother is nearly 82 and she hates me going away anywhere let alone a place like Turkey which she considers dangerous even without earthquakes!Many people especially elderly ones tend to be nervous but to be honest I would go to Istanbul anyway although these articles depress me.Having decided to buy a house (assuming I find one I like and can afford it) do I ask the vendor for some kind of structural certificate re its suitability to withstand quakes?Or do I instruct a surveyor to carry out such an investigation?

#13 benhalterci

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Posted 05 September 2008 - 06:11 PM

Btw, I do know a few things about the Izmit quake because my ex-bf is a naval officer in Golcuk.

#14 Ken

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Posted 06 September 2008 - 11:45 PM

Sunny I added the site you mentioned to the directory, it can be found by anyone searching for "earthquake" or "earthquakes." I didn't really look over the site you mentioned, it looks great, thanks for letting me know...Regarding anything to do with earthquakes, I might suggest asking it in the real estate forum. We have a local real estate expert there (Lozengelegend) who might have an answer for you on that. Since it's Istanbul, they probably have some municipal laws which cover earthquake issues and structural certificates since it's more of an issue for them.

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#15 OnlymeTA

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Posted 10 September 2008 - 12:28 PM

:hysterical[1]: oh, why did I have to read this early in the morning ! I must confess, I hold my breath everytime I come to Turkey. The reason being earthquakes, but let me qualify my apprehension. I was in the Alaska Earthquake of 1964 and believe me, it is one natural occurance that will never leave your memory. When you see crevices slithering like snakes and the earth opening at every direction it is mind boggling. The sound is like a giant watermelon splitting with enourmous sound.......Not trying to scare anyone here, and it has not kept me from staying a month at a time. But I do check the latest maps for a pattern...haha, (like I can tell the likelihood). Actually the earthquake risk for Turkey as a whole is large, the area of concentration being the whole western coastal side, north to south. Other areas are as well, but I am never heading those places. If anyone is interested in earthquake information realtime, I love the USGS earthquake page. This will show many things and also educate about earthquakes. It does cover all the world, and a illustrative map shows earthquakes by intensity. You can select the criteria, such as time period, and size, place etc.Secondly....everytime I have been to an earthquake prone country...guess what happens while I'm there....yep, you might have guessed right....so far I have been spared in my three trips there. :hysterical[1]: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/By the way, the Turkish earthquake center sites are listed here also.The world page for the last 8-30 days ( with list of exact epicenter and strength )http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/qed/There is also a page on historic earthquakes with pictures. My Alaska 1964 quake is there and its a miracle at the time we had so little population, or I believe things could have been much worse.
Enjoy your day, Victoria

#16 nh0828

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Posted 18 November 2010 - 02:23 AM

Hi all--

I know I'm resurrecting a very old topic here, but it looks like there is some good (if just slightly outdated) info in it. I've read a lot of articles about the likelihood of a major earthquake in Istanbul, and it is somewhat disconcerting. Do a simple Google search, and you come up with a lot of stuff from a wide variety of Turkish, European, and American sources. Most of them compare the potential quake to what happened to Haiti in January--yeeesh. The statistics vary a bit, but a very non-scientific aggregation of the data I've read puts it at 30-70% chance of a major quake within the next 30-60 years. Obviously, that's a really wide range of probability and timeframe, but nonetheless it is somewhat more ominous than what was said in this thread a few years ago.

With that in mind, what's the mood like in Istanbul regarding "the Big One"? Are any areas of the city "safer" (if such a thing exists) than others, due to what they're built on or the quality of buildings? My understanding is that the most at-risk buildings are those built during the construction boom, with shoddy materials and craftsmanship. Anyone have any thoughts or broad recommendations? Thanks.



Cheery topic, right? Ah well. Hope everyone's having a safe and non-shaky week.
nh



A few depressing articles:
http://www.scienceda...00118091806.htm
http://www.nytimes.c...quake.html?_r=1
http://earthquake.ur...ul-bbc-science/
http://www.dw-world....5195264,00.html
http://sofiaecho.com...anbul-of-danger

#17 Amy

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Posted 18 November 2010 - 09:34 AM

When I lived in Turkey when I was about 7 years old I remember seeing a massive earthquake on the local news. The reporter was speaking from inside a building but rubble was falling all around her and at one point she just ran offscreen because the building started to come down and the news feed cut...I think that could have been in Izmir?

#18 benhalterci

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Posted 18 November 2010 - 02:32 PM

Well as I said in another thread, I was sitting on my sofa here and it shook as if I was on a boat in the high seas but it didn't last long:)Well, Neil, another reason for you not to purchase here:) If I were you Id park my 200 k in stocks or gold!

#19 nh0828

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Posted 19 November 2010 - 10:06 PM

Any--

I won't make any guesses at your age, but if you were "about 7" in 1999, that seems like it could have been the Izmit earthquake. I'm not aware of any serious quakes in Izmir this century.


benhalterci--

Just to avoid any confusion, my name is Neil and I am new, but I should not be confused with the other new fellow named Neil. He's looking at buying property in Istanbul, I'm one of the TEFL masses. Odd coincidence, but no relation. Cheers.

#20 Amy

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Posted 20 November 2010 - 02:14 AM

Any--I won't make any guesses at your age, but if you were "about 7" in 1999, that seems like it could have been the Izmit earthquake. I'm not aware of any serious quakes in Izmir this century.

That sounds about right tbh, and does sound very familiar! It was a scary day.